MSM Forschungsseminar

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Sommersemester 2022

04.05.2022 Lukas Buchheim, TU Dortmund

Aggregate and Firm-Specific Information in Expectations


This paper develops a novel method to estimate the importance of aggregate and firm-specific information for firms' expectation formation. Based on a representative sample of German manufacturing firms, we document several new facts: First, firms are equally well informed about the aggregate and firm-specific components of their businesses, even though the firm-specific fluctuations are far more important for firms' businesses. Second, at times of crises firms expect a weakly higher share of the variation in firm-level outcomes, but uncertainty increases due to the overall increase in the dispersion. Third, firms heavily rely on information contained in observables, in particular regarding demand and production; information about prices are less important for forming expectations regarding business fluctuations in the short run. Fourth, the data provides evidence in favor of the law of iterated expectations. Fifth, firm-specific and overall information about future shocks quickly decays with longer forecast horizon.

18.05.2022 Arne Strauss, WHU Vallendar

The value of flexible flight-to-route assignments in pre-tactical air traffic management


To inform current discussions on the future role of the network manager in air traffic management, we illustrate the value of flexible flight-to-route assignments by dynamically influencing airspace users’ choices by pricing decisions to make flexible options more attractive when needed; the overall aim is to reduce costs arising from re-routings, tactical delays, and penalties (for violating fairness and revenue neutrality conditions). This problem is structurally related to the last mile next day delivery problem but poses some special challenges.

08.06.2022 Guido Voigt, Universität Hamburg

A Choice-Based Optimization Approach for Contracting in Supply Chains


We consider a supplier-buyer supply chain. The buyer holds private forecast information (high/low), and the supplier offers a menu of capacity reservation contracts to align incentives. We analyze how the menu of contracts should be adapted when lifting the assumptions that buyers act rationally and/or that buyers' utility is deterministic. We employ a novel choice-based optimization approach that integrates a multinomial logit model (capturing the buyer's contract choice behavior) with a mixed-integer nonlinear program. The choice-based optimization model can be solved with off-the-shelf solvers and is therefore ready to use by management. We further derive qualitative insights on how to adapt existing contracts in a numerical study. We show that cutting off low-demand buyers, reducing reservation fees in a specific manner and introducing more contract options may increase suppliers' and supply chains' performance.

22.06.2022 Simon Reif, ZEW – Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research

Effects of Introducing Prospective Payment on Length of Stay in Mental Health Care

29.06.2022 Markus Reisinger, Frankfurt School of Finance & Management
06.07.2022 Kerstin Grosch, Vienna University of Economics and Business

Reducing the Gender STEM Gap

13.07.2022 Svenja Hippel, Universität Bonn


Vergangene Vorträge

Hier finden Sie eine Übersicht über vergangene Vorträge.